When Patrick Mahomes stepped to the podium after the Kansas City Chiefs’ 31-28 Thanksgiving Day loss to the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, he didn’t sugarcoat it. "You’ve got to win every game now, and hope that’s enough." The 29-year-old quarterback’s words weren’t just a rallying cry—they were a stark admission: the Chiefs’ eight-year playoff streak, the longest in franchise history, is teetering on the edge. After falling to 6-6, their playoff probability sank from 63% to 47% overnight, according to ESPN analytics. This isn’t a bad stretch. This is a crisis.
The Streak Is in Jeopardy
The last time the Kansas City Chiefs missed the playoffs was 2014—before Mahomes even wore the uniform. Since then, under head coach Andy Reid, they’ve become the NFL’s most consistent contender: four Super Bowl appearances, three titles, and now, an unprecedented eight straight postseason berths. But this season? It’s unraveling. The Chiefs have lost three of their last five, including back-to-back home defeats. They’re not just falling behind—they’re falling behind teams they used to dominate. The Denver Broncos (9-2) and Los Angeles Chargers (7-4) sit above them in the AFC West. And now, the road ahead doesn’t get easier.
The Five-Game Gauntlet
The Chiefs’ final five games are all against AFC opponents—a brutal stretch that starts with a Monday night showdown against the Houston Texans (6-5) on December 7 at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. The Texans, with the NFL’s second-best scoring defense (16.5 points per game), aren’t just a tough matchup—they’re a mirror. They’ve beaten playoff-caliber teams. They’ve lost to underdogs. Sound familiar?
After Houston, the Chiefs face the Chargers (again), then the Tennessee Titans, the Broncos (again), and finally the Las Vegas Raiders. Three of those games are on the road. Two are against teams currently ahead of them in the division. And here’s the kicker: Arrowhead Pride analysis shows that if the Chiefs win all five, their playoff odds jump to 99%. But lose just one? Everything changes.
Consistency? That’s the Problem
Mahomes threw four touchdowns and rushed for 30 yards against Dallas. He was brilliant. And yet, the Chiefs lost. Again. "We can beat anybody," he said. "But we’ve shown we can lose to anybody." That’s the haunting truth. The offense is still lethal. But the defense? It’s giving up 26.8 points per game over the last six weeks. Special teams have been erratic. The offensive line has struggled to protect Mahomes in critical moments. It’s not one flaw—it’s a pattern.
Compare this to 2022, when the Chiefs won the Super Bowl despite a 12-5 record. Back then, they were peaking in December. This year? They’re stumbling. And the clock is ticking. With only five games left, there’s no time for moral victories. No room for "we’ll fix it next week."
What’s at Stake Beyond the Playoffs
It’s not just about making the postseason. It’s about legacy. Mahomes is 29. Reid is 66. The window isn’t closing—it’s already half shut. If the Chiefs miss the playoffs in 2025, it’s not just an anomaly. It’s a signal. A sign that the dynasty’s foundation is cracking. The organization, headquartered at Arrowhead Stadium, has spent the last decade building a culture of winning. Now, they’re being tested on whether that culture can survive a rough patch.
And let’s not forget the emotional weight. Mahomes was born in Tyler, Texas. He played college ball at Texas Tech. He returned to Texas as a hero. And yet, on Thanksgiving, he left with a loss. That sting? It’s personal.
What’s Next?
The December 7 game against Houston isn’t just another matchup. It’s a reset button. Win, and the Chiefs regain momentum. Lose, and the pressure becomes unbearable. NBC’s Sunday Night Football broadcast will be watched by millions—not just for the game, but for Mahomes’ reaction. Will he look like a man who still believes? Or one who’s running out of time?
The Chiefs’ locker room has always been a place of calm under pressure. But now, the calm might be forced. The players know what’s at stake. The fans know it too. And Mahomes? He’s not asking for sympathy. He’s asking for perfection.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can the Chiefs still make the playoffs if they lose one of their final five games?
Yes—but it’s unlikely. According to ESPN’s playoff simulator, a 7-9 record gives the Chiefs just a 12% chance of making the postseason, and only if multiple teams ahead of them collapse. A 8-8 record would require at least two AFC teams to finish 9-8 or worse, which is statistically improbable. Winning four of five is the bare minimum to keep hope alive.
Why is the Texans game so critical?
The Texans have the NFL’s second-best scoring defense (16.5 PPG) and are fighting for their own playoff life at 6-5. A win at Arrowhead would give the Chiefs momentum and a crucial tiebreaker edge. A loss would drop them to 6-7 and likely eliminate them from wild card contention unless they win out—and even then, they’d need help from multiple teams.
How does this compare to past Chiefs playoff misses?
The last time Kansas City missed the playoffs was 2014, before Mahomes joined. Since then, they’ve made the postseason every year. Their previous drought was six straight seasons from 2009–2014. A 2025 miss would be their first since the Reid-Mahomes era began, and the first time they’ve missed in back-to-back seasons since 1990.
Is Andy Reid under pressure?
Not publicly—but internally, yes. Reid has never missed the playoffs in a season where he coached the full year since 2002. At 66, this could be his final chance to win another Super Bowl with Mahomes. Front office sources say the organization expects playoff appearances as standard, not as a reward. A 2025 miss would force tough conversations about roster changes and coaching adjustments.
What does Mahomes’ Texas connection mean for this loss?
Mahomes was born in Tyler, Texas, and played at Texas Tech. He’s a hometown hero in a state that adores football. Losing to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving in Arlington—just 150 miles from where he grew up—adds emotional weight. It’s not just a game. It’s personal. That’s why his postgame comments felt so raw. He’s not just playing for the Chiefs. He’s playing for his roots.
What’s the worst-case scenario for the Chiefs?
The worst-case scenario is a 7-10 finish, missing the playoffs for the first time since 2014, ending the longest streak in franchise history. That would trigger major roster turnover, questions about Mahomes’ durability, and a full-scale evaluation of the entire football operation. It would also mark the first time since 2009 that the Chiefs failed to reach the postseason in consecutive years.